Increased Body Mass Index and Metabolic Syndrome Are Associated with Poor Outcomes in SARS-CoV-2-Positive Emergency Department Patients.

Background: Increased body mass index (BMI) and metabolic syndrome (MetS) have been associated with adverse outcomes in viral syndromes. We sought to examine associations of increased BMI and MetS on several clinical outcomes in patients tested for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). Methods: The registry of suspected COVID-19 in emergency care (RECOVER) is an observational study of SARS-CoV-2-tested patients (n=27,051) across 155 United States emergency departments (EDs). We used multivariable logistic regression to test for associations of several predictor variables with various clinical outcomes. Results: We found that a BMI ≥30 kg/m2 increased odds of SARS-CoV-2 test positivity (odds ratio [OR], 1.30; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.23-1.38), while MetS reduced odds of testing positive for SARS-CoV-2 (OR, 0.76; 95% CI, 0.71-0.82). Adjusted multivariable analysis found that MetS was significantly associated with the need for admission (OR, 2.11; 95% CI, 1.89-2.37), intensive care unit (ICU) care (OR, 1.58; 95% CI, 1.40-1.78), intubation (OR, 1.46; 95% CI, 1.28-1.66), mortality (OR, 1.29; 95% CI, 1.13-1.48), and venous thromboembolism (OR, 1.51; 95% CI, 1.07-2.13) in SARS-CoV-2-positive patients. Similarly, BMI ≥40 kg/m2 was significantly associated with ICU care (OR, 1.97; 95% CI, 1.65-2.35), intubation (OR, 2.69; 95% CI, 2.22-3.26), and mortality (OR, 1.50; 95% CI, 1.22-1.84). Conclusion: In this large nationwide sample of ED patients, we report a significant association of both high BMI and composite MetS with poor outcomes in SARS-CoV-2-positive patients. Findings suggest that composite MetS profile may be a more universal predictor of adverse disease outcomes, while the impact of BMI is more heavily modulated by SARS-CoV-2 status.

SARS-CoV-2 Positivity in Ambulatory Symptomatic Patients Is Not Associated With Increased Venous or Arterial Thrombotic Events in the Subsequent 30 Days.

BACKGROUND: COVID-19 has been associated with increased risk of thromboembolism in critically ill patients. OBJECTIVE: We sought to examine the association of SARS-CoV-2 test positivity and subsequent acute vascular thrombosis, including venous thromboembolism (VTE) or arterial thrombosis (AT), in a large nationwide registry of emergency department (ED) patients tested with a nucleic acid test for suspected SARS-CoV-2. METHODS: The RECOVER (Registry of Potential COVID-19 in Emergency Care) registry includes 155 EDs across the United States. We performed a retrospective cohort study to produce odds ratios (ORs) for COVID-19-positive vs. COVID-19-negative status as a predictor of 30-day VTE or AT, adjusting for age, sex, active cancer, intubation, hospital length of stay, and intensive care unit (ICU) care. RESULTS: Comparing 14,056 COVID-19-positive patients with 12,995 COVID-19-negative patients, the overall 30-day prevalence of VTE events was 1.4% vs. 1.3%, respectively (p = 0.44, χ2). Multivariable analysis identified that testing positive for SARS-CoV-2 status was negatively associated with both VTE (OR 0.76; 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.61-0.94) and AT (OR 0.51; 95% CI 0.32-0.80), whereas intubation, ICU care, and age 50 years or older were positively associated with both VTE and AT. CONCLUSIONS: In contrast to other reports, results from this large, hetereogenous national sample of ED patients tested for SARS-CoV-2, showed no association between vascular thrombosis and COVID-19 test positivity.

Association Between Baseline Use of Angiotensin-Converting Enzyme Inhibitors and Angiotensin Receptor Blockers and Death Among Patients Tested for COVID-19.

Angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitor (ACEI) and angiotensin receptor blocker (ARB) drugs may modify risk associated with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). Therefore, we assessed whether baseline therapy with ACEIs or ARBs was associated with lower mortality, respiratory failure (noninvasive ventilation or intubation), and renal failure (new renal replacement therapy) in SARS-CoV-2-positive patients. This retrospective registry-based observational cohort study used data from a national database of emergency department patients tested for SARS-CoV-2. Symptomatic emergency department patients were accrued from January to October 2020, across 197 hospitals in the United States. Multivariable analysis using logistic regression evaluated end points among SARS-CoV-2-positive cases, focusing on ACEIs/ARBs and adjusting for covariates. Model performance was evaluated using the c statistic for discrimination and Cox plotting for calibration. A total of 13 859 (99.9%) patients had known mortality status, of whom 2045 (14.8%) died. Respiratory failure occurred in 2485/13 880 (17.9%) and renal failure in 548/13 813 (4.0%) patients with available data. ACEI/ARB status was associated with a 25% decrease in mortality odds (odds ratio [OR], 0.75; 95%CI, 0.59-0.94; P = .011; c = .82). ACEIs/ARBs were not significantly associated with respiratory failure (OR, 0.89; 95%CI, 0.78-1.06; P = .206) or renal failure (OR, 0.75; 95%CI, 0.55-1.04; P = .083). Adjusting for covariates, baseline ACEI/ARB was associated with 25% lower mortality in SARS-CoV-2-positive patients. The potential mechanism for ACEI/ARB mortality modification requires further exploration.

Clinical prediction rule for SARS-CoV-2 infection from 116 U.S. emergency departments 2-22-2021.

OBJECTIVES: Accurate and reliable criteria to rapidly estimate the probability of infection with the novel coronavirus-2 that causes the severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS-CoV-2) and associated disease (COVID-19) remain an urgent unmet need, especially in emergency care. The objective was to derive and validate a clinical prediction score for SARS-CoV-2 infection that uses simple criteria widely available at the point of care. METHODS: Data came from the registry data from the national REgistry of suspected COVID-19 in EmeRgency care (RECOVER network) comprising 116 hospitals from 25 states in the US. Clinical variables and 30-day outcomes were abstracted from medical records of 19,850 emergency department (ED) patients tested for SARS-CoV-2. The criterion standard for diagnosis of SARS-CoV-2 required a positive molecular test from a swabbed sample or positive antibody testing within 30 days. The prediction score was derived from a 50% random sample (n = 9,925) using unadjusted analysis of 107 candidate variables as a screening step, followed by stepwise forward logistic regression on 72 variables. RESULTS: Multivariable regression yielded a 13-variable score, which was simplified to a 13-point score: +1 point each for age>50 years, measured temperature>37.5°C, oxygen saturation<95%, Black race, Hispanic or Latino ethnicity, household contact with known or suspected COVID-19, patient reported history of dry cough, anosmia/dysgeusia, myalgias or fever; and -1 point each for White race, no direct contact with infected person, or smoking. In the validation sample (n = 9,975), the probability from logistic regression score produced an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.80 (95% CI: 0.79-0.81), and this level of accuracy was retained across patients enrolled from the early spring to summer of 2020. In the simplified score, a score of zero produced a sensitivity of 95.6% (94.8-96.3%), specificity of 20.0% (19.0-21.0%), negative likelihood ratio of 0.22 (0.19-0.26). Increasing points on the simplified score predicted higher probability of infection (e.g., >75% probability with +5 or more points). CONCLUSION: Criteria that are available at the point of care can accurately predict the probability of SARS-CoV-2 infection. These criteria could assist with decisions about isolation and testing at high throughput checkpoints.

Multicenter registry of United States emergency department patients tested for SARS-CoV-2.

This paper summarizes the methodology for the registry of suspected COVID-19 in emergency care (RECOVER), a large clinical registry of patients from 155 United States (US) emergency departments (EDs) in 27 states tested for SARS-CoV-2 from March-September 2020. The initial goals are to derive and test: (1) a pretest probability instrument for prediction of SARS-CoV-2 test results, and from this instrument, a set of simple criteria to exclude COVID-19 (the COVID-19 Rule-Out Criteria-the CORC rule), and (2) a prognostic instrument for those with COVID-19. Patient eligibility included any ED patient tested for SARS-CoV-2 with a nasal or oropharyngeal swab. Abstracted clinical data included 204 variables representing the earliest manifestation of infection, including week of testing, demographics, symptoms, exposure risk, past medical history, test results, admission status, and outcomes 30 days later. In addition to the primary goals, the registry will provide a vital platform for characterizing the course, epidemiology, clinical features, and prognosis of patients tested for COVID-19 in the ED setting.